Rosatom Hanhikivi 1 nuclear power plant construction site in Pyhäjoki, Finland 2015 JPS
Has Rosatom Become a Powerful Geopolitics Nuclear Weapon for Russia, Largely Underestimated by the Western Democracies?
The world needs now very quick transition to clean energy. Building nuclear reactors delays this process heavily. For example the planning & construction time of Olkiluoto 3 nuclear reactor seems to be at least 20 years from 2002 - when Finnish parliament accepted the plan - to 2022 which is the last estimate of the beginning of the commercial power generation of the plant. The median constructing time of nuclear reactors have been recently about 10 years + a few years licencing process according to World Nuclear Report 2020 https://www.worldnuclearreport.org/IMG/pdf/wnisr2020-v2_lr.pdf .
Only renewable energy based solutions are scalable and fast enough to build to address the climate crisis. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-energy-nuclearpower-idUSKBN1W909J
There is no danger of nuclear weapons proliferation involved in renewable energy. It's easy and fast to be commissioned in small or large scale projects, suitable also for the poorest countries and rural areas. It's easy to plan and build, gives plenty of working and small business opportunities on local level. https://news.un.org/en/tags/renewable-energy?page=1
https://woods.stanford.edu/news/stanford-study-charts-path-green-new-deal-143-countries
https://research.lut.fi/converis/portal/Publication/10576002?auxfun=&lang=en_GB
However, there are countries creating global dominance in nuclear power technology for geopolitical reasons though it is not economically profitable but needs state subsidiaries. These corporations are run by Russia and China which both have their own state owned and corporation controlled business models designed for their geopolitical purposes.
Rosatom
Rosatom Mission and Corporate values formulated in 2014:
"Each of us bears personal responsibility for his/her work result to the State, Sector, colleagues and customers. ..." https://rosatom.ru/en/about-us/our-mission-and-corporate-values/
The order in which the different actors are told here is scarcely any coincidence. The State (Russia) is number one. The customer is the last.
The military wing (nuclear weapons) is not mentioned in the company introduction, though they use it in their marketing widely. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJhZ3i-HXS0
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33975032
https://www.hindustantimes.com/world/moscow-replica-of-most-powerful-n-bomb-detonated-on-display/story-8TYNKnSZBKhAu7cSvgfBQO.html
There is a good summary of Russian geopolitics and Rosatom written by Nazrin Mehdiyeva in NDC Russian Studies Series 3/19. Some highlights of the article:
"Rosatom’s contribution to national security has grown since the imposition of Western sanctions in 2014. Though the sanctions do not apply to the nuclear industry, Russian strategic documents characterise them as “restrictive economic measures” imposed by “the USA and its allies seeking to maintain their dominance in world affairs” and aimed at “containing” Russia.7 Breaking free from containment is a priority security objective of the Russian state, and Rosatom is one of its main instruments."
"Russia’s Energy Strategy to 2020 asserts that the country’s role on the world energy markets in many ways “determines its geopolitical influence”, and atomic energy is increasingly regarded as a powerful tool in its own right."
Conclusion:
"Rosatom’s activities have received considerably less attention in the West than those of Gazprom or Rosneft. However, Rosatom’s achievements in helping the Russian state meet its strategic objectives are significant. These include helping the Russian state overcome Western sanctions, establishing new income streams and promoting Russia’s international standing. ..."
https://www.ndc.nato.int/research/research.php?icode=584
Rosatom is not any small actor - according to its website it tells having 250 000 employees and consisting of 350 enterprises. Not any mention if the military sector is involved here. https://www.rosatom.ru/en/rosatom-group/
World Nuclear News mentions the worth of Rosatom oversea projects:
"In March, Rosatom said that it planned to maintain a 10-year portfolio of foreign orders at the current level of at least USD140 billion, and the following month the company said it was prepared for difficulties that may arise with project timelines." https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Rosatom-keeps-to-overseas-schedule-despite-pandemi
Rosatom and the Northern Sea Route
Rosatom's importance in Russian Geopolitics has grown during the recent years when Rosatom was chosen to run and host the Northern Sea Route. When this is combined with the renewal and strengthening of the Nordic military bases which control the Northen Sea Route with Rosatom's nuclear weapons equipped ships and submarines and cruise missile bases it is obvious that the geopolitical weight of this Russian crown jewel has increased a lot.
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/05/europe/russia-arctic-nato-military-intl-cmd/index.html"In 2018 the Russian government transferred the main responsibility for the Northern Sea Route to Rosatom which through its ROSATOMFLOT subsidiary manages the Russian nuclear powered icebreaker fleet based in Murmansk" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Sea_Route
"Russia’s Rosatom Group plans to spend $7 billion to become one of the world’s largest container shipping operators. The company aims to offer container liner service along the Arctic’s Northern Sea Route (NSR), a shortcut between Asia and Europe, competing with the Suez Canal."
https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/rosatom-invest-7bn-arctic-shipping-compete-suez-canalLately, when the large container ship Ever Given got stuck in the Suez Canal, the Russians made fun of it - via Rosatom:
"In a twitter thread, Russia's State Nuclear Energy Corporation makes big fun of the trouble for global shipping caused by the wedged cargo ship in the Suez canal and uses the opportunity highlight benefits of sailing the Northern Sea Route route between Asia and Europe." https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/industry-and-energy/2021/03/making-fun-suez-traffic-jam-rosatom-promotes-northern-sea-route The Nordic Sea Route is closely related also to recent Power Show of Rosatom nuclear powered and nuclear armed submarines. A combat readiness show of three submarines to rise through thick arctic sea ice simultaneously is impressive and gives a strong signal of the capabilities of Russian navy.
"The three submarines broke through 5-foot-thick (1.5 meters) ice to surface within 1,000 feet (300 m) of each other at the same time, "for the first time in the history of the Navy," Russian navy commander Admiral Nikolay Yevmenov told Russia's President Vladimir Putin in a televised video call." https://www.livescience.com/russian-nuclear-subs-emerge-arctic-ice.html A very good article by Professor Tamsin Shaw on
Just Security https://www.justsecurity.org/73422/trumps-impact-on-nuclear-proliferation/ points out the wide geopolitical influence the Russians are having through Rosatom nuclear projects around the world:
"On paper it might appear that Russia, alongside China, is now dominating the field of nuclear energy by building reactors. But Cheryl Rofer, a nuclear scientist retired from Los Alamos, who follows their deals closely told me that “Russia has pushed its reactors to other countries, often sweetening the deal with offers of financing. Nuclear technology is one of Russia’s few manufacturing exports. Many countries have been approached but the number of Russian reactors being built is small.” In this sector, as in others, Russia in fact exercises influence and retains leverage through non-conventional and sometimes invisible means." "The United States also relies, both for civilian utilities and defense purposes, on nuclear fuel supplied by Russian subsidiary of Rosatom called Techsnabexport (TENEX). No U.S. uranium enrichment facilities are currently in operation." Rosatom methods of influencing
Following examples are shedding light to the tactics Russia uses with Rosatom overseas projects. Links to the articles can be found after the brief text loaned from the source.
Turkey
"While these state-to-state deals are certainly significant, they tend to overshadow a quieter, but equally important Russian campaign to “flip” Turkey’s influential business community. Akkuyu NPP, and the scandals of its board, shed light on Russian attempts to gain leverage over Erdogan and his advisors through the local private sector, in what appears to be a gradual building of hybrid warfare capacity against a key NATO ally."
"Moscow utilizes economic resources and Russian companies to exert influence on key power-brokers in the target country, often lobbying to maintain or increase the country’s dependence on Russian energy at the state level. In the Kremlin’s playbook, Russian firms co-opt local businesspeople and decision makers via lucrative business deals and high-profile board positions—all via nontransparent, frequently corrupt processes. " Hungary
"Orbán at that time complained about the lack of transparency surrounding the bank. In 2012, however, Putin revived the IIB, and two years later, right after Hungary and Russia signed the agreement that provided the €10 billion Russian loan for Rosatom, a Russian state company, to build another reactor in Paks, Viktor Orbán returned to the fold." https://hungarianspectrum.org/tag/panama-papers/ Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia
"30 years later after the fall of communism, Central Europe’s industries are connected to the West in innumerable ways. But signs that its nuclear industry continues to be heavily influenced by Russian interests are everywhere." https://www.investigace.eu/the-nuclear-influence-how-russia-acts-on-the-central-european-energy-market/ Nigeria
"The Nigerian government signed an agreement with the Russian state-owned nuclear energy corporation last October to build and operate a nuclear power plant, the first of its kind on the continent, as well as a research centre that would house a nuclear research reactor." https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/268410-why-nigeria-needs-nuclear-power-plant-russias-rosatom-chief.html South Africa - a good example of Rosatom geopolitics and corrupt practises
"Starting with Putin’s 2006 visit, the Kremlin pushed systematically to elevate bilateral nuclear cooperation with South Africa. The first breakthrough was a Putin-Mbeki agreement for Russia to supply fuel to South Africa’s Koeberg nuclear power plant.33 Koeberg is part of an inheritance from the apartheid regime’s nuclear weapons program, and its two reactors generate approximately 5 percent of the country’s total electricity.34 On the same visit, Putin also publicly called for ramping up bilateral cooperation on uranium mining and nuclear power plant construction, activities that would eventually take center stage during the state capture investigation."
"Despite the propensity of the company’s executives to exaggerate their overseas marketing prowess, Rosatom also serves as an important tool for the Kremlin’s foreign policy agenda. That role has created significant albeit unresolvable tensions within the company. Its technocratic leadership, which takes a more conservative approach to managing the firm’s finances, chafes at being saddled with projects that do not make good economic sense. Yet, to the Kremlin, which controls the company through its oversight board, even bad deals can make for good geopolitics. Putin’s persistent advocacy of a large-scale nuclear deal with South Africa fell squarely into this category."
"While the questionable benefits of the nuclear deal for South Africa have been well documented, the dubious economic benefits for Russia have drawn less attention. This, in turn, underscores the role of geopolitics and opportunism as the key drivers of Russian policy toward South Africa. With a meager tool kit for sustaining its geopolitical ambitions, Moscow is finding that success is more elusive than commonly perceived. Serious questions remain about the tangible benefits such global forays will provide to the Kremlin over the long run."
Rosatom and the increased nuclear powered weapons buildup and military base development connected to arctic marine route plans
Russia has developed new kind of nuclear powered weapons which can severely affect the balance between the nuclear weapons states and begin a new circle of nuclear arms race. Rosatom is the corporation behind the nuclear technology of propulsion systems and nuclear warheads of these new type of weapons. Some of them (Poseidon torpedoes) could be equipped with a warhead up to 100 Megatons - larger than the biggest detonated nuclear bomb, the famous Tsar Bomba - made by Rosatom's predecessor.
There has been also fatal accidents when testing these new weapons. In 2015 five Rosatom specialists died while running a secret mission with a nuclear powered cruise missile. Also a nuclear material leak to the environment was reported.
Coffee or Die wrote about the incident:
"in August last year, the botched test of a nuclear-powered cruise missile off the coast of Nyonoksa killed five civilian and military specialists, injured others, and spiked radiation levels in nearby civilian settlements.
The explosion happened when a barge reportedly attempted to recover a nuclear-powered Burevestnik cruise missile from the seabed. Those killed included members of a special nuclear reactor development team from Rosatom, Russia’s national nuclear energy corporation." https://coffeeordie.com/russian-tests/
Business Insider discusses about the Poseidon-nuclear torpedo project:
"Since 2015, when images of a Russian nuclear torpedo first leaked on state television, the world has asked itself why Moscow would build a weapon that could end all life on Earth." https://www.businessinsider.com/the-real-purpose-of-russias-poseidon-nuclear-doomsday-device-2019-2?r=US&IR=T
DefenceNews confirms that the Poseidon project is not a hoax but a real weapons program. https://www.defensenews.com/space/2018/01/12/russias-nuclear-underwater-drone-is-real-and-in-the-nuclear-posture-review/
Tass released material about the testing of Poseidon:
https://tass.com/defense/1013969
The Barents Observer tells also about the testing:
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2020/05/russia-prepares-testing-doomsday-drone
Reuters gave some information which leave us with question marks about what kind of "catastrophe of global propotions" was avoided by the heroic crew of the secret submarine when a fire was distinguished onboard:
"“They all shared one and the same fate - to save the lives of their comrades, to save their vessel and to prevent a catastrophe of global proportions at the cost of their own lives,” Sergei Pavlov, an aide to the Russian navy’s commander, was quoted as saying at the funeral by St Petersburg media outlet Fontanka on Saturday." https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-submersible-incident-idUSKCN1U31O3
Just today (April the 5th 2021) there was an article worth reading on CNN about huge Russian military buildup and the increasing Russian influence in the arctic. It deals with the same questions this blog post is about:
"US officials also expressed concern at Moscow's apparent bid to influence the "Northern Sea Route" -- a shipping lane that runs from between Norway and Alaska, along Russia's northern coast, across to the North Atlantic. The 'NSR' potentially halves the time it currently takes shipping containers to reach Europe from Asia via the Suez Canal.
Russia's Rosatom state nuclear company released elaborately produced drone video this February of the 'Christophe de Margerie' tanker completing an eastern route across the Arctic in winter for the first time, accompanied by the '50 Let Pobedy' nuclear icebreaker for its journey in three of the six Arctic seas."
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/05/europe/russia-arctic-nato-military-intl-cmd/index.html
While writing this blog post, news channels are telling Russia is giving Ukraine (once again) harsh military threat by bringing its troops and tanks to the Ukrainian border with full combat readiness. Rosatom is always a part of that threat, in the background.
Melinda Haring, Deputy Director, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council:
"The United States should keep doing what it’s doing, and do more of it. Late last week, President Biden pledged “unwavering support” for Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression. Biden and his team spent much of the week on the phone reassuring the Ukrainians that Washington has their back. But that’s not enough. Washington needs to tell Moscow that if it doesn’t leave the Donbas in six months, the United States will levy more sanctions and begin visa bans on top Russian officials. All options should be on the table, and the State Department and National Security Council should start gaming out options."
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/is-putin-about-to-launch-a-new-offensive-in-ukraine/
Conclusion
It's about the time for the western democracies to act.
Some suggestions:
1. Put sanctions on Rosatom NOW.
2. Cancel all Rosatom nuclear reactor projects in EU and western countries.
3. Start planning and constructing renewable energy projects in a massive scale for the countries abandoning Rosatom reactors.
4. Start quickly creating a Pan European Power Grid with enough renewable energy and storage capacity to reduce the dependence on Russian gas, oil, coal, nuclear fuel and nuclear power plants.
5. Help Ukraine to transit from Russian energy to renewables by cooperation and cheap loans and direct funding.
6. Tighten transatlantic cooperation on energy and defence.
JPS
Comments
Post a Comment